Belief vs. Possibility: A Skeptic’s Guide to Navigating the Cosmic Circus (Part I)

This blog entry came about a debate with people trying to convince me to believe in Aliens because "it's possible"... Well,  I teach information theory at the university, covering topics such as belief theory and the credibility of information. Allow me to share my perspective on the distinction between belief and possibility.

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Some individuals, entrenched in their convictions about aliens, chemtrails, and the New World Order (NWO), often resort to a rather feeble form of argument: “but, it’s possible!” This phrase, similar to a verbal shrug, stands as one of the lowest rungs on the ladder of discourse—just above outright insults.

However, let’s dissect this notion of possibility. Indeed, within the vast expanse of the cosmos, nearly anything can be deemed “possible.” The universe, with its myriad mysteries, harbors scenarios both mundane and fantastical. Perhaps, hidden behind the veil of cosmic uncertainty, a zombie apocalypse looms, ready to descend upon us like a malevolent fog. Yet, in our daily lives, we don’t clutch cans of beans in perpetual anticipation of the undead uprising.

Why? Because our beliefs and actions are not solely tethered to abstract possibilities. Instead, we navigate existence based on probabilities, evidence, and practical considerations. When rain threatens, we wield umbrellas; when zombies remain elusive, we prioritize other concerns.

So, the next time someone insists that “it’s possible,” remember this: Our beliefs should be anchored in reason, empirical data, and critical thinking—not merely in the boundless reaches of cosmic what-ifs. As for canned beans, let them rest on the supermarket shelves until the apocalypse reveals itself more convincingly. 


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Belief:

Definition: Belief is the mental acceptance or conviction that a proposition or statement is true or valid. It resides within the subjective domain of cognition.

Characteristics:

Subjective: Beliefs are deeply personal and influenced by individual experiences, culture, upbringing, and cognitive biases.

Context-Dependent: Beliefs can shift based on context, available evidence, and emotional states.

Dynamic: Beliefs evolve over time as new information emerges.

Example: Believing in the existence of extraterrestrial life based on UFO sightings or personal anecdotes.

Possibility

Definition: Possibility refers to the potential existence or occurrence of something. It transcends individual beliefs and operates in the objective realm of logical and probabilistic reasoning.

Characteristics:

Objective: Possibilities exist independently of personal convictions.

Quantifiable: Possibilities can be quantified using probabilities (scenarios, fuzzy numbers, etc.).

Universal: Possibilities extend beyond individual perspectives.

Example: Acknowledging that, within the vast cosmic expanse, countless scenarios are possible—ranging from mundane events to fantastical phenomena.

Credibility of Information

Information Theory Perspective: In the realm of information theory, credibility hinges on the reliability and trustworthiness of data. We assess the credibility of information based on:

Entropy: The uncertainty associated with a message or proposition.

Source Reliability: The trustworthiness of the source conveying the information.

Redundancy: Repetition and consistency in the data.

Belief and Credibility: Our beliefs are influenced by the credibility of information. We weigh evidence, evaluate sources, and adjust our convictions accordingly.

Navigating the Landscape

Critical Thinking: Information theory encourages critical thinking—scrutinizing evidence, assessing probabilities, and distinguishing between belief and objective possibility.

Pragmatism: In daily life, we act based on practical probabilities rather than abstract possibilities. Carrying an umbrella due to a high chance of rain is pragmatic, even if the zombie apocalypse remains theoretically possible.

In summary, belief and possibility intersect within the intricate fabric of human cognition, but their distinct realms—subjective belief and objective possibility—shape our decisions, actions, and understanding of the world.

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